Something Old, Something New
As many of you know, I write a regular column for TimeWarner's local News10Now website. Recently, I wrote one about how many technologies are becoming, or have already become, obsolete, thanks to technology - largely computer technology. I had so much fun, I decided to expand on it here. I'm sure that once you start thinking about the possibilities, you're imagination will start to fire up, as well.
I was thinking about the many companies that, like the famous buggy whip manufacturers of yore, simply won't be around in years to come - or at least, their numbers will be severely reduced. All thanks to technological advances, largely computers and smart phones.
Watches: fewer and fewer people wear them these days. Once I got my iPhone, I realized that when I wanted to know what time it was, nine times out of ten I consulted my phone, not my watch.
How about stationery manufacturers, or greeting card companies? I tried to find a Mother's Day card recently, and all they had were those musical cards with a little chip inserted in them so that they play music when opened.
For that matter, I watched a postman making his appointed rounds today and got to thinking about how little mail that's delivered to my house is anything I even bother with. Letters - who writes letters?? Occasionally I get a bill, though almost all my bill payment is done online. Even flyers and advertising is moving more and more to the online space.
While I doubt that books will be replaced altogether - there is still a tactile pleasure involved in opening a book, and not all situations are ideally suited (at least, not yet) for the e-readers on the market (bright outdoor light, for example), I'm guessing that as generations grow up with less contact with physical books, they will be less desirable. Our children's children probably won't "get" that pleasure of opening a new book, the feel of the pages and the smell of the ink.
Newspapers are certainly in a fight for their lives, and I have little hope that they'll win. As WiFi access become more ubiquitous, we'll be able to do even our commuting newspaper reading online.
Maps, while they will always be necessary as a concept, will be delivered via computer an GPS rather than the old Rand-McNally atlas I used to buy every year and keep in my car.
Desk and home phones will eventually fade away as our phones become personal devices we simply have with us everywhere and at all times. I hate to admit remembering not only a single phone line for the whole family - imagine that! - but a party line. (For those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about, this was a system in which you shared the phone line with several homes nearby. If you wanted to make a call, you politely interrupted the person already on the line - whose call you could eavesdrop on, by the way - to ask them to please release the line so you could use it!)
We've talked before about computers themselves, and my expectation that one day in the not too distant future, all you're really going to need is a relatively small display and input mechanism (think, iPad), and all your applications and data will reside in "the cloud." This will take a while, as security is and will remain a concern for all of us. But data encryption keeps improving, and except for highly secure requirements, most of us can feel ok about photos and blogs and other data living somewhere offsite. Yes, we'll probably continue to do high processing demand applications like video editing from a resident processor, but even that seems to be improving steadily as a remote possibility. Certainly the world of photo editing is becoming more and more feasible done on a remote server.
It's been a long time since futurists predicted that we'd be managing our homes from wherever we happened to be - but that possibility has become a reality. We've seen the commercials where a car can be started by someone three states away; we know that with OnStar, for example, a crash is immediately reported by the car to a hub, where help is dispatched to the scene. Keys-locked-in-cars are, again, no problem for cars equipped with OnStar. Call the service, and they'll unlock your car for you.
Now we're being offered services like adjusting the temperature of your home while you're at work; record a program on your tv when you're at the grocery store; why not start the roast that's waiting in the oven while you're getting your hair done? It's all possible, and will become more and more the norm, particularly in newly built homes where these features can be piped right in rather than retrofitted.
There are so many possibilities there it only takes a little imagination to realize that the wild future of sci-fi is truly within reach. Don't like curtains but do want privacy? Why not just have programmable windows that will darken for privacy or shade? Or for that matter, why not holograms for curtains that you can change at will? (They really are working on fabric that displays imagery, and can even "bend" light so as to make the wearer invisible.)
One futurist predicts that our bathrooms will become medical testing centers as stool and urine samples are collected and tested for various incipient diseases every time we use them. And then there are the cars that drive themselves that are already in the testing phase...
So while one system fades, another appears. The challenge, as always, is just keeping up with it!
I was thinking about the many companies that, like the famous buggy whip manufacturers of yore, simply won't be around in years to come - or at least, their numbers will be severely reduced. All thanks to technological advances, largely computers and smart phones.
Watches: fewer and fewer people wear them these days. Once I got my iPhone, I realized that when I wanted to know what time it was, nine times out of ten I consulted my phone, not my watch.
How about stationery manufacturers, or greeting card companies? I tried to find a Mother's Day card recently, and all they had were those musical cards with a little chip inserted in them so that they play music when opened.
For that matter, I watched a postman making his appointed rounds today and got to thinking about how little mail that's delivered to my house is anything I even bother with. Letters - who writes letters?? Occasionally I get a bill, though almost all my bill payment is done online. Even flyers and advertising is moving more and more to the online space.
While I doubt that books will be replaced altogether - there is still a tactile pleasure involved in opening a book, and not all situations are ideally suited (at least, not yet) for the e-readers on the market (bright outdoor light, for example), I'm guessing that as generations grow up with less contact with physical books, they will be less desirable. Our children's children probably won't "get" that pleasure of opening a new book, the feel of the pages and the smell of the ink.
Newspapers are certainly in a fight for their lives, and I have little hope that they'll win. As WiFi access become more ubiquitous, we'll be able to do even our commuting newspaper reading online.
Maps, while they will always be necessary as a concept, will be delivered via computer an GPS rather than the old Rand-McNally atlas I used to buy every year and keep in my car.
Desk and home phones will eventually fade away as our phones become personal devices we simply have with us everywhere and at all times. I hate to admit remembering not only a single phone line for the whole family - imagine that! - but a party line. (For those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about, this was a system in which you shared the phone line with several homes nearby. If you wanted to make a call, you politely interrupted the person already on the line - whose call you could eavesdrop on, by the way - to ask them to please release the line so you could use it!)
We've talked before about computers themselves, and my expectation that one day in the not too distant future, all you're really going to need is a relatively small display and input mechanism (think, iPad), and all your applications and data will reside in "the cloud." This will take a while, as security is and will remain a concern for all of us. But data encryption keeps improving, and except for highly secure requirements, most of us can feel ok about photos and blogs and other data living somewhere offsite. Yes, we'll probably continue to do high processing demand applications like video editing from a resident processor, but even that seems to be improving steadily as a remote possibility. Certainly the world of photo editing is becoming more and more feasible done on a remote server.
It's been a long time since futurists predicted that we'd be managing our homes from wherever we happened to be - but that possibility has become a reality. We've seen the commercials where a car can be started by someone three states away; we know that with OnStar, for example, a crash is immediately reported by the car to a hub, where help is dispatched to the scene. Keys-locked-in-cars are, again, no problem for cars equipped with OnStar. Call the service, and they'll unlock your car for you.
Now we're being offered services like adjusting the temperature of your home while you're at work; record a program on your tv when you're at the grocery store; why not start the roast that's waiting in the oven while you're getting your hair done? It's all possible, and will become more and more the norm, particularly in newly built homes where these features can be piped right in rather than retrofitted.
There are so many possibilities there it only takes a little imagination to realize that the wild future of sci-fi is truly within reach. Don't like curtains but do want privacy? Why not just have programmable windows that will darken for privacy or shade? Or for that matter, why not holograms for curtains that you can change at will? (They really are working on fabric that displays imagery, and can even "bend" light so as to make the wearer invisible.)
One futurist predicts that our bathrooms will become medical testing centers as stool and urine samples are collected and tested for various incipient diseases every time we use them. And then there are the cars that drive themselves that are already in the testing phase...
So while one system fades, another appears. The challenge, as always, is just keeping up with it!
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